Here's why India's life-saving plan for IDBI Bank makes no sense

It's hard to see how the transaction could bolster the reputation of any of India's three financial regulators

Rescuing a dying bank with taxpayers' money is often the only way to prevent a costlier contagion. But nursing a deposit-taking institution by tapping life-insurance premiums of policyholders? That's like allowing a localized infection to spread all over, hoping the natural immunity of an otherwise healthy body will help beat back the germs.

India's plan to sell a majority stake in IDBI Bank Ltd to Life Insurance Corp of India is not modern medicine. It's bureaucratic quackery. New Delhi hasn't found a genuine private-sector buyer for the ailing IDBI for more than two years. Hence, the stage is being cleared for state-owned LIC, the government’s preferred buyer of stuff nobody wants.

If LIC cares about its fiduciary responsibility to policyholders, it will pass this one up. But then, it can never say no to New Delhi. LIC already owns about 11 percent of IDBI, thanks to its previous participation in rescue missions. The new proposal is for it to take roughly half of the government’s 81 percent interest to become the majority shareholder. It could cost LIC around $3 billion to pay the government and top up IDBI’s capital for one year.

That's money down the drain.

At more than $8 billion, the bank’s gross nonperforming assets are nearing 28 percent of the total. If all IDBI’s distressed loans currently classified as standard assets have to be marked down, NPAs would rise to almost 36 percent, in India Ratings & Research Pvt.’s assessment.

Suppose NPAs do go up, but only to the halfway mark of 32 percent. The math is still stark: A 70 percent loss on 32 percent of the bank’s $29 billion loan book would translate to a $6.5 billion hit, of which only about $4 billion could be absorbed by existing loan-loss provisions. The remaining $2.5 billion would wipe out IDBI’s Tier 1 capital. Whatever price LIC pays for IDBI shares would be too much. Instead of buying from the government, LIC could purchase new stock in IDBI. However, that would dilute minority investors while generating zero cash for the government’s stretched budget.

It’s hard to see how the transaction could bolster the reputation of any of India’s three financial regulators.

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