Tuesday 31 January 2017

Budget highlights: Fiscal deficit target for 2017-18 at 3.2%

Allocation under MNREGA increased to 48,000 cr from Rs 38,500 cr; highest ever allocation

Here are the highlights of Jaitley's budget for the 2017/18 fiscal year that begins on April 1.
FISCAL DEFICIT
* The 2017/18 budget seeks to pursue prudent fiscal management to preserve financial stability.
*Fiscal deficit at 3.4%
*Revenue deficit stands reduced to 2.1% in Fy18
GROWTH
* Jaitley says India seen as an engine of global growth
DEMONETISATION
* Demonetisation "a bold and decisive measure", will make GDP bigger and lead to higher tax revenues - finance minister
* Hit to economy from government decision to outlaw high-denomination notes will be "transient", effects of demonetisation not expected to spill over to next year
* Pace of remonetisation has picked up and will soon reach comfortable levels
* Surplus money in the banking system will lower borrowing costs, increase credit flow
INFLATION
*Consumer price index inflation is expected to remain within the central bank's mandated range of 2 to 6%
SPENDING
* India to spend more in rural areas, infrastructure and poverty alleviation
* The government will continue process of economic reforms for the benefit of poor
* Allocation under MNREGA increased to Rs 48,000 cr from Rs 38,500 cr; highest ever allocation
*Dedicated micro-irrigation fund will b set up by NABARD to achieve goal of 'Per Drop More Crop'.Initial corpus will be Rs 5,000 crore
*Mission Antyodaya to bring 1 crore households out of poverty and to make 50,000 Gram Panchayats poverty-free: FM Jaitley
*Propose to double the lending target of Pradhan Matri Mudra Yojana and set it up at Rs 2.44 lakh crore for 2017-18: FM Arun Jaitley. Read more

Budget speech to be delivered as per schedule: Govt sources

There had been some confusion over presentation of the Budget following the death of MP E Ahamed

Budget 2017 India : Government and Parliament secretariat sources said the Budget speech by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley would be delivered according to schedule on Wednesday.
Amid confusion over whether the Parliament would be adjourned following the death of sitting member of Parliament E Ahamed, sources said the Budget presentation would not be postponed. Ahamed, who was an Indian Union Muslim League Lok Sabha member and former Minister of State for External Affairs E Ahamed, passed away early morning on Wednesday.. He had suffered a cardiac arrest at the time of President Pranab Mukherjee's address to the joint sitting of Parliament on Tuesday afternoon.
Government sources said there was needless confusion about the issue. Usually, the House proceedings are adjourned if a serving member passes away. But sources said there was no rule to this, and this was only a convention.
The Lok Sabha, therefore, will meet and pay its respects to the departed soul but the Budget presentation will go on as per schedule. All that the government needs to do is get half dozen parties on its side even if the Congress and others might protest.
The Congress is likely to protest what it has alleged to be the intent to keep the news of Ahamed's passing away under wraps. On Tuesday midnight, Congress President Sonia Gandhi and other leaders reached RML Hospital to complain that Ahamed's family member were not being allowed to meet him. Ahamed was declared dead a couple of hours later.

Budget 2017 to try and ease pain from cash crunch

Budget 2017 to try and ease pain from cash crunch

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will likely boost spending and ease back on cutting the deficit when he presents his fourth budget on Wednesday, as he seeks to lift growth hit by the government's drive to purge the economy of "black money".
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's surprise decision last November to scrap high-value banknotes worth 86 percent of India's cash in circulation has hit consumer demand, disrupted supply chains and hurt capital investments.
Jaitley will present the 2017/18 budget at 11 am (0530 GMT) to the lower house of parliament.
The finance ministry forecasts that growth could dip to as low as 6.5 percent in the current fiscal year to March, before picking up in the coming fiscal year to between 6.75 and 7.5 percent.
While opinions vary on how long the disruptions caused by Modi's crackdown on untaxed and illicit wealth will last, there is near unanimity among economists that Asia's third-largest economy needs a helping hand.
Arvind Subramanian, Jaitley's chief economic adviser, on Tuesday advocated slashing personal income tax and accelerating cuts in corporate tax rates. He cautioned, however, against pursuing debt-fuelled fiscal expansion.
Still, economists are pencilling in a federal fiscal deficit of 3.3 percent of GDP for 2017/18. That would be higher than the 3 percent pledged earlier but lower than 3.5 percent that the government has budgeted for the year soon to end.
"Expectations are running high for an expansive budget," said Radhika Rao, an economist with DBS Bank in Singapore.(Read more)

Fiscal deficit in April-December hits 94% of budget target

Last year, fiscal deficit for the same period stood at 87.9%


Fiscal deficit in the first nine months of 2016-17 touched 93.9 per cent of the Budget target as against 87.9 per cent for the same period a year ago.
In value terms, the April-December fiscal deficit stood at Rs 5.01 lakh crore, or 93.9 per cent, Budget 2017 estimates (BE). The fiscal deficit stood at 87.9 per cent in the corresponding nine months a year ago, as per 2015-16 BE.
Fiscal deficit, the gap between expenditure and revenue for the entire fiscal, has been pegged at Rs 5.33 lakh crore, or 3.5 per cent of the GDP, for the financial year 2016-17.
As per data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), tax revenue came in at Rs 7.52 lakh crore, or 71.4 per cent of the full-year BE of Rs 10.54 lakh crore.
Total receipts from revenue and non-debt capital of the government during the period read Rs 9.68 lakh crore or 67.1 per cent of BE.
The government's Plan expenditure during the fiscal came in at Rs 4.10 lakh core, 74.6 per cent of the full-year budget estimate. During the same period last year, it stood at 74.4 per cent.
The Non-Plan expenditure in April-December of 2016-17 was Rs 10.59 lakh crore, or 74.2 per cent, of the whole-year estimate.
The total expenditure (Plan and Non-Plan) was Rs 14.69 lakh crore, 74.3 per cent of the government's full-year estimate of Rs 19.78 lakh crore.
The revenue deficit during April-December stood at Rs 3.54 lakh crore, or 100.1 per cent of BE for 2016-17.

Budget 2017: Nearly 13 cr poor covered under social security schemes


Budget 2017 : Observing that financial inclusion was the key to poverty alleviation, President Pranab Mukherjee on Tuesday said close to 13 crore poor have been covered under various social security schemes of the Narendra Modi government.
Addressing the customary joint session of both houses of parliament ahead of the budget session, Mukherjee said the core of all government policies was inclined towards achieving welfare of the poor, Dalits, deprived, underprivileged, farmers, workers and the youth.
Enumerating various pro-poor schemes, Mukherjee said the government was guided by the philosophy of 'Antyodaya' (integral humanism).
"To take the banking system to the doorstep of the poor and the unbanked, the Indian Postal Payment Bank was started. An unprecedented 26 crore plus Jan Dhan accounts were opened for the unbanked," he said.
"My government is committed to providing shelter to every houseless poor household through the Pradhan Mantri Aawas Yojana," he said.
Mukherjee said that under the Deen Dayal Antyodaya Yojana, over Rs 16,000 crore have been made available to self-help groups (SHGs) in the current financial year while over Rs 2 lakh crore was provided through 5.6 crore loans sanctioned under Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana.

Monday 30 January 2017

Staffing industry seeks resolution of tax woes in Budget

Wants TDS cut from 10% to 2%, and applied on commission earned, not on gross invoice value

Wants TDS to be cut from 10% to 2%, and applied on commission earned, not on gross invoice value
The staffing industry, representing companies such as Team Lease and Quess, wants finance minister Arun Jaitley to resolve the tax anomalies it faces, in the upcoming Budget 2017 India.
The Indian Staffing Federation says that its demand assumes significance since post-demonetisation it is the formal sector which will grow and the staffing industry will play a crucial role in that.
The industry represents contract hiring in organised industry done through tri-partite agreements -- between the company that is hiring, the person hired and the staffing industry.
The Federation said tax deducted at source (TDS) is imposed on the gross invoices received by its members from its client companies, whereas it should be on just the commission received by the staffing companies.
While this amount is adjusted later, it takes about a year to happen, creating cash flow problems for staffing companies, says Suchita Dutta, executive director of the Federation.
At the same time, the Federation said its members topped the list of India staffing firms, as per the recent report published by Staffing IndustrAnalysts. The report indicated that the Indian staffing industry was estimated to be worth Rs 27,000 crore in 2015 and is forecast to grow by 12 per cent in 2016 and 10 per cent in 2017.
When asked when there is cash flow problems, how come the industry is performing so well, Dutta said the results are based on top lines and not bottom lines. Read more

'Budget 2017 must focus on housing, infrastructure for pro-poor thrust'


http://www.business-standard.com/budget/article/budget-2017-must-focus-on-housing-infrastructure-for-pro-poor-thrust-117013000275_1.html

Considering that the welfare of the poor and middle class is the priority area of the government and the assembly elections manifestos of all the major political parties centre around housing and urban development, this year's budget is expected to give a major thrust on real estate housing & infrastructure.
The Budget 2017 should be seen in the backdrop of a tough year for real estate and housing, with the problem of weak sales and high unsold inventory getting further precipitated by demonetisation. It's a matter of concern that the sale of housing units declined by 10 percent in the six month period ending September 2016.
This poses a major challenge to NDA government's flagship programme of 'Housing for All', as housing besides infrastructure, is a major booster to GDP especially in a slowdown economy and has a multiplier effect on allied sectors.
It's time to build on the foundation of structural and institutional reforms, addressing the vital issue of seamless implementation of key reforms like Real Estate Regulation Act (RERA), Smart Cities Mission, REITs (real estate investment trusts), GST and Bankruptcy Act and carry out the unfinished reform agenda of 'Ease of Doing Business and Single Window Clearance'.
As the government is rightly giving boost to affordable/low-cost housing for the success of its 'Housing for All' mission,the budget needs to come up with policy initiatives/incentives to give a fillip to affordable and low cost housing by way of direct benefits to home buyers, resulting in enhanced affordability.
In order to widen the scope of interest rebate on affordable housing,there's a need to enhance the 30 sq mtr area limit of houses, especially when the government has already broadened the scope of interest subsidy under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) by enhancing the loan eligibility limit from 6 lakh to 12 lakh by creating two additional loan slabs of 9 lakh and 12 lakh with interest subsidy of 4 percent and 3 percent respectively. Read more

Budget 2017: Govt convenes all-party meet today, seeks Opposition's support

Budget 2017: Govt convenes all-party meet today to seek opposition's support

The government has convened an all-party meeting today ahead of the Budget 2017Session of Parliament to seek opposition's support for the smooth conduct of proceedings in both the Houses.
Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan has also called a meeting of leaders of political parties in the House same evening.
The Budget Session will start from Tuesday with President Pranab Mukherjee's address to a joint sitting of the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha.
The Economic Survey will also be presented on the first day of the session. General Budget will be presented on Wednesday.
The two Houses will have a month long recess from February 10 to March 8 to enable the Standing Committees to consider the Demands for Grants of Ministries and Departments and prepare their reports.
Six expectations of banking sector from Budget 2017

With the Union Budget 2017 just a sniffing distance away, banking stocks are on a roll.
The BSE Bankex, the barometer of banking stocks, has shot up 12% since its December lows in the anticipation of budgetary stimulus to keep demons of demonetisation at bay.
Since the low 2,0148 hit on December 26, the Bankex has risen 12% to settle at 22,566 last week. This is against an 8% rise in Sensex during the same period. Read more

Friday 27 January 2017

Measures expected from India's annual budget that could impact markets

Govt set to announce additional details behind GAAR, which will be implemented starting April 2017

Investors in India are bracing for higher taxes and less incentives from the government's annual Budget 2017 Date to be unveiled on February 1 as the focus shifts to wringing out revenues to finance giveaways and higher public investment to support the economy.
Below are the main elements expected in the measures that could impact markets:
Guidelines for General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR)
- Government set to announce additional details behind GAAR, which will be implemented starting on April 2017.
- GAAR is meant to crack down on tax havens, making it harder to claim some tax exemptions.
- The government on Friday said GAAR would not apply for foreign investors based on a jurisdiction because of genuine commercial reasons and not just to benefit from exemptions under India's tax treaties with other countries.
- India also said investors who meet so-called limitation of benefits criteria for individual tax treaties would be exempt from GAAR.
- Limitation of benefits seeks to ensure foreign companies or investors based in countries with special tax treaties with India meet certain criteria such as minimum level of investment and a commercial presence in the relevant jurisdiction.
Taxes under indirect transfer rules
- Government expected to say whether foreign portfolio investors, private equity funds and venture capitals are liable to pay indirect transfer taxes
- Confusion created after tax department said in December such investors could be liable to pay taxes if more than 50 pct of a fund's or investment vehicle's assets are based in India under some conditions
- Tax department also said indirect transfer tax could be charged under certain ownership and investment levels. Read more

Weekly roundup: Best week in 8-month; Sensex surges a whopping 848 points

A pre-Budget rally defied the negative results from Wipro, Ashok Leyland, HUL and M&M

The market put a stellar show in a holiday-truncated expiry week with benchmark indices rising to eighth-month highs thanks to higher rollovers to February series ahead of Union Budget 2017 as a pre-Budget rally defied the negative results from companies such as Wipro, Ashok Leyland, HUL and M&M. Positive sentiment abroad after Dow Jones, Wall Street’s closely-watched index, hit its fresh lifetime high of 20,000-mark, also aided the sentiment.
During the week ended January 27, the S&P BSE Sensex added 3.1% or 848 points to settle at 26759, while Nifty50 gained 3.5% or 291 points to close the week at 8641.
Midcap and Smallcap stocks jumped. The BSE Midcap index rose 3%, while the BSE Smallcap index surged 2.8%.
"With signs of FIIs taking interest in Indian equities, and with January derivatives’ expiry witnessing a 5-month high rollover in Nifty, investors continued to chase price higher, with only a few days left before budget is presented. It also helped that Dow continued to close above-20000 mark lending positivity to global markets,” said Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services.
Sectors and stocks
All sectoral indices settled in green.
The week saw BSE Metal index gaining 5.9%, followed by the BSE Consumer Durables and the BSE PSU index, which gained 5.5% each. The BSE Oil & Gas index (4.9%), the BSE Bankex (4.8%) and the BSE Auto (4.5%) were other sectoral gainers.
Among individual stocks, HDFC, Adani Ports and SBI surged 10.8%, 6.7% and 6.1%, respectively for the week. Bajaj Auto gained 5.7%, Hero MotoCorp advanced 5.1%, while Mahindra & Mahindra added 5%.
Losers included Wipro (2.4%), Infosys (0.7%), Hindustan Unilever (0.6%) and Sun Pharma (0.2%). Read more

Farm insurance, credit access schemes expected in Budget 2017: Kakra of PwC

The PwC leader (Food and Agriculture), PwC was replying during a Business Standard live chat

In an effort to double the agriculture production by 2020, the government should introduce schemes for greater access to farm credit in Budget 2017, Ajay Kakra, leader (Food and Agriculture) PwC, said.
Kakra also underlined that Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley should also introduce policies for incentives towards irrigation and insurance of farm crops. He further highlighted the need for a digitised farming economy in the longer run.
Kakra was answering questions on what announcements related to the agriculture sector are expected in Budget 2017 during a Business Standard live chat. Excerpts:
In his New Year's eve speech, Prime Minister Narendra Modi talked about giving certain concessions and incentives to farmers. It is hoped that the government will follow that up with further concessions and incentives for the agriculture sector and the agro-input industry in the coming Budget. What can we expect?
One of the key focus areas of the honourable prime minister is to provide greater access to farm credit. In my view as well this can be a key area of focus to strengthen the farming sector. As far as the agriculture input sector is concerned, access to seed, agrochemical and fertiliser is an essential requirement for ensuring farm output. The Budget can look at strengthening the distribution network of agri-inputs to ensure availability at the time of sowing or beginning of the season. The rabi sowing has been more or less normal while the offtake of fertiliser has also not been dampened due to cash crunch at the time of demonetisation.
In the financial year, the overall agricultural output was expected to grow at 4 per cent. But with the government's demonetisation move that has likely caused some roadblocks, what kind of favourable policies can we expect to heal the agriculture sector?
Agricultural growth is fundamentally governed by the output of food grain and other crops which are showing no signs of decrease. The Rabi crop is also expected to be normal except a shortfall in rabi paddy. Therefore, the sector will see a growth over the last year. Demonetisation had only a one-time effect on the agricultural transactions but has not shown any sign of slow-down in food storage and distribution and even consumption. I believe the policies will look at strengthening the coverage of a greater number of farmers in the formal banking system and providing more credit in terms of crop loans, equipment purchase, technology adoption. Currently, only 52 per cent of the total farming community of 9.2 crore is covered under the financial net. The government should aim at increasing it by another 10 per cent. Apart from this we may see policies and incentives towards irrigation and insurance of farm crop. Read more